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SANTA ANITA
FALL MEET
SATURDAY, October 10, 2026
Today’s Race Card/Horsecellany
There are ten races today, four on the main, six on the turf.
Notable jockeys include: Hernandez, Rosario, Rispoli, Jaramillo, Berrios, Kimura, Smith, Leparoux.
There is a handicap race, The California Flag Handicap, Race 9.
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Post Time today is 1 PM PT, 4:00 PM ET
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ULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: Boss Sully (Race 9)
PENULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: not available in free analysis
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QUESTION: How important is “surface specialization” for optimization of a thoroughbred’s performance?
Answer: “Thoroughbred horses generally perform better and show more consistent form when they stick to the specific surface (dirt, turf, syn) that matches their biomechanics, pedigree and running style. Abruptly switching surfaces— like when a turf horse suddenly is called to run off-turf— affects grip, stride mechanics and energy output, often leading to a drop in performance.” (courtesy AI)
I have always presumed this. I knew for example that Irish horses trained on the turf are selected based on the size of their feet, bigger is better for turf. In any event when a horse is suddenly switching surfaces an alarm goes off in my handicapping suite.
A surface change based on poor performance on the current surface may be a shade less concerning.
*****
RACES 6-9
Very closely graded
RACE 6
Two raced at RD, only Smokem Jeannine hit the board. Altogether six contestants raced and three hit the board in a dirt sprint; I’m Smokem Hot, Smokem Jeannine and Vegas Del Oro.
Smokem Jeannine hit the board in all three sprints, twice at RD, courtesy Orantes, Alvarez/Orantes kills it here
I’m Smokem Hot drops precipitously from MSW level; she hit the board in three of four sprints, missing last time out under the command of Baze, Brinkerhoff/Baze also kills it here
Lihue Princess turns back 1,908 feet coming off the turf, with a very favorable pedigree for this trip, she is rested, has a shot in this jejune field, the major class drop helps
RACE 7
Three raced at RD and two hit the board: Throwthefirstpunch and Sirnami.
Altogether eight contestants raced and only four hit the board in a turf sprint.
Going Nowhere turns back 1,320 feet, hit the board in seven of nine grass races, placing in his sole sprint at 6 ½ f, Orantes produced most of her successes including the sprint success
Throwthefirstpunch also turns back 1,320 feet, and he hit the board in three of five grass sprints, O’Neill/Kimura $$$$+ here
Fair Question also turns back 1,320 feet, hit the board in two 5f sprints, would possibly have won that last one if it had been 6f
RACE 8
Twelve raced at RD and seven of them won, once. I am unsure whether or not Sexy Blue ever won a dirt sprint.
Marvelousmissmabel her long trip, 6 ½ f was marred by turbulence, but she won comfortably at 5 ½ f last time out with plenty left in the tank, Mendez likes the dirt sprint and Herrera rides again
Sugaree hit the board in five of nine sprints, and won one at 5 ½ f, in this jejune field she can contend
Darlin Tami class drop; that Bautista weight allowance helps the cause, like giving the filly a head start in the race, she hit the board in four of six sprints, winning once at RD here
RACE 9
The California Flag Handicap
Six and one-half furlongs, turf course ($100000)
Six raced at RD and five of them won. Big City Lights never won a turf sprint.
Four entries won a turf sprint at stakes level: Lonesome Stew, On the Whim, Flyover, Boss Sully.
Boss Sully rested, won a heady five of his last eleven grass sprints, one at stakes level, and he worked four furlongs on dirt at an average of 38.9 mph on the 4th, The Inimitable Mike Smith rides
Lonesome Stew won three of his last four grass sprints, including both trips at RD, one at stakes level here, he won four of six turf races overall and turns back 990 feet, Turf Man Rispoli cinches the pick
Chromeflash he enjoys a five-to-fourteen pound weight allowance afforded Gonzalez by virtue of the handicap, he hit the board in five of eight grass sprints, a type of race which Ms. Capestro kills, and he won here at RD last June
*****
MAY THE HORSE BE WITH YOU!
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